UK DATA: Oct NSA construction output -2.5% m/m
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Construction growth in October fell sharply in October on a
non-seasonally adjusted basis, a bad start to the quarter and may imply
a negative impact on GDP figures released by National Statistics showed
Friday. The data for October, though, which show a 2.5% fall on the
month and 2.7% on the year, compare to a smaller fall of 0.2% on the
month in October 2011. As the monthly data are non-seasonally adjusted
it makes interpreting the data difficult. But assuming that the annual
rate of growth remains similar over the next few months and taking into
consideration the usual seasonal adjustment in Q4, these figures suggest
a fall in construction output in Q4 of 4% on a seasonally adjusted
basis. While there are still two months of the quarter to go initial
signs point to a quarterly fall which could knock 0.3 percentage point
off GDP.