US April 2019 non-farm payrolls report highlights:
- Prior was +196K (revised to 189K)
- February was +33K (revised to +56K)
- Estimates ranged from 120K to 250K
- Two month net revision +16K
- Unemployment rate 3.6% vs 3.8% expected
- Participation rate 62.8% vs 63.0% prior
- Avg hourly earnings +0.2% vs +0.3% exp
- Avg hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs +3.3% exp
- Private payrolls +236K vs +188K exp
- Manufacturing +4K vs +10K exp
- U6 underemployment 7.3% vs 7.3% prior
That's a big headline number and it's giving the US dollar a lift. The unemployment rate also fell but that's mostly due to falling participation, which isn't a great thing. Still 3.6% unemployment is a rock-bottom level and puts another nail in the coffin of the idea that a rate cut is needed this year.
I don't really see any holes to pike in this report but wage growth was a touch on the soft side and that's going to embolden the doves to allow any slack remaining in the economy to be eaten up.
