US DATA: (1 of 4) Monday is a holiday in the US but the remaining four
days are packed with economic data. There won’t be much to distract from
the upcoming May data on employment and payrolls, but the numbers will
round out what is known about conditions in the second quarter to-date.
The median estimate for May non-farm payrolls is around up 200,000. This
is roughly between the performance for the first quarter average
(+175,000 a month) and the April increase (+244,000). The expectation
for the unemployment rate is at 8.9%, down one-tenth from April. The
outlook for the labor market probably remains on a sustained path of
modest improvement. The May report on Friday should confirm this.
Leading up to the employment data will be a few other labor market
indicators, the most important of which is likely to be the ADP National
Employment Report on Wednesday. The readings for the last three months
have shown a fairly good correspondence to the actual payroll data. If
the May numbers point to another steady rise, it will confirm
expectations for the Friday BLS data.