By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. job market is expected to show only
marginal improvement for the month of September in the next payrolls
report, to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday, October
8.

According to a survey of economist by Market News International,
private payrolls are expected to rise 85,000, with total payrolls
forecast to fall by 8,000, leaving a 93,000 drop in government payrolls.

The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 9.7%. The bulk of
the drop in government labor can be expected from temporary census
workers, which fell from a level of 83,955 in the August survey week to
6,038 in the September survey week.

The private payrolls figure has averaged gains of 95,000 per month
in 2010, though the increases range between 16,000 in January and
241,000 in April. This is still well below pace needed for restoring job
losses totaling 3.8 million in 2008 and 4.6 million in 2009.

According to Scott Brown, economist at Raymond James, said the
expected gain fits the recent trend in nonfarm payrolls. “The report
should be positive, but not nearly strong enough,” he said in a
telephone interview.

The ADP employment report showed a fall of 39,000 payrolls for the
month of September, with losses concentrated in construction and
manufacturing sectors.

The data will be closely watched due its position as the last
monthly report before both the next FOMC meeting and the November
mid-term election. The Federal Reserve has been under intense pressure
to expand its accommodative policy as the economy has stalled in recent
months.

William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve, said in
an October 1 speech “further action is likely to be warranted unless the
economic outlook evolves in a way that makes me more confident that we
will see better outcomes for both employment and inflation before too
long.”

Initial jobless claims, which are widely considered an indicator of
trends in payrolls data, have also started to decrease on average over
the past month. The four-week moving average for claims has declined in
each of the last five weeks.

— Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MAUDS$]