The S&P 500 trades at 1116, essentially at the highs of the year, just below 1120, the 50% retracement of the decline from 1575. A break of that fibo without the usual “boost” from a weak dollar would be a big change in recent market dynamics. A shift back to good news benefiting the dollar and stocks could be under way.
The reflation trade, ex-the dollar is doing pretty well as oil rallies on signs of US growth. Gold is below $1200, however. EUR/USD is consolidating losses around 1.4950. A sustained break of 1.4915 would be very bearish.
