Ryan had the Q2 US GDP revisions posted during our overnight
Briefly, it's a very positive story:
- US Q2 GDP 1st revision 3.7% vs 3.2% expected (q/q annualized)
- Prior 2.3%
More at Ryan's post, including my favourite bit of analysis on the whole thing: "There's really not a lot here for people to moan about"
Some of the responses from various bank analysts I've seen about the place, in brief:
Morgan Stanley:
- "Q2 GDP growth was revised up ... left H1 growth at 2.2%, matching the post-recession average over the past six years"
- Estimates for Q3 GDP tracking at +2.0%,
Deutsche Bank say Q2 saw good growth and not concerned for growth ahead
- Do note that "private inventories as a percentage of the overall economy is currently at 13.6%.
- A post-recession high, ... a tenth below the 13.7% average during the prior business cycle
- Hence, there may not be large of a draw down in inventories in the current quarter"
JP Morgan
- Good Q2
- See solid indications for Q3 sales
- Estimate of +2% Q3 GDP
Credit Suisse:
- Q2 GDP data good
- Might argue for a Federal Reserve rate hike
- "Given the tumult in the financial markets last week, we pushed back our official forecast for the first Fed rate hike from September to December. We reasoned that the FOMC would not want to risk exacerbating a significant drop in risk appetite with a tightening as soon as next month. We were careful to note, however, that a sharp risk rally and commodity rebound in coming weeks could still prompt a hike next month or in October"
Goldman Sachs say their tracking estimate for Q3 GDP is 2.5%
