Canadians aren't getting raises
The new number to watch in the Canadian employment report is real wage growth. It's cratering.
After rising around 3% at the start of last year, it's plunged. That continued in April as it fell to just 0.53% y/y from 0.9% y/y in March.
The chart only goes back to 1998 but it's the worst reading since the early-90s recession in Canada.
The story -- as it is elsewhere -- is that the great jobs in Canada's resource sector have been replaced by the McJobs that pay far less.
That chart will be a major topic of conversation at the Bank of Canada and a good reason to keep a neutral (if not dovish) bias even as the Fed hikes.
So while USD/CAD made a recovery today after 10 straight days of declines, the trend is lower unless commodity prices can make a big turn.
