Via eFX, this from Global FX Strategy at Morgan Stanley

USD: Trend Is Your Friend. Bullish.

We have revised our USD forecasts higher, expecting a 6% move higher in the Broad USD TWI. Three major policy initiatives as a result of the US election (fiscal stimulus, trade, corporate tax reform) are likely to be USD positive, and we now expect the Fed to hike 6 times by YE18. USD strength will be most pronounced against the low yielders like JPY. Data continues to come in strong and Fed commentary suggests that it is willing to put up with a stronger USD if it's due to an improving economic outlook (as opposed to earlier in the year). We are watching closely for indications on future policy changes.

GBP: Near-Term Outperformance. Neutral.

We maintain ourview that GBP may outperform in the near term, with the potential for GBPUSD to stage a tactical rebound to 1.30. The EU's Dijsselbloem and UK's Davis suggesting that the UK may be able to retain single market access could continue to help GBP lose some of its risk discount. An adjustment of the market's large short GBP positioning could also support the currency. However, we think GBP may weaken again going into Q117 due to falling business investment, which we would use to buy against EUR as one of our top trades for 2017.

CHF: More Room for Strength. Neutral.

We think CHF could have more room for appreciation, particularly against EUR and JPY. The SNB has been concerned about a strong CHF because of local deflation, but Switzerland's CPI has been rising steadily this year and global inflation is also picking up, which could make the SNB more tolerant of CHF strength. The SNB allowing EURCHF to fall below 1.08 (which has been a line in the sand for the SNB previously) may be an early indication of this. We like expressing our constructive CHF view against JPY as they could also be supported by the Eurozone political risks in 2017.

CAD: Best Performing Commodity Currency. Neutral.

We expect CAD to weaken against USD but outperform other commodity currencies. CAD is not as vulnerable as MXN to trade protectionism given a prior free trade agreement which would take effect if the US backs out of NAFTA, though this still remains a risk. However, a better US economic outlook (from other policies like fiscal stimulus) should benefit Canada. 3Q GDP was in line with expectations and the bar for easing from the BoC is high given its downgraded forecasts for 4Q and moderate worries around the housing market. Poloz noted this week that it would take a "significant departure" in the outlook for easing, supporting ourview.

AUD: Structurally Bearish. Bearish.

We are structurally bearish AUD and expect it to underperform NZD. The market has priced too hawkish a path for the RBA given weak employment data, signs of a housing slowdown and our expectation for a negative 3Q GDP print. Australia will also be hurt as China's mini-cycle recovery slows (as we already see in the housing data). While the RBA may not cut rates for the foreseeable future, in ourview it will make sure the market reflects its easing bias, weakening AUD. AUD is also particularly vulnerable to rising US interest rates given its high yield (relatively speaking) status and current account deficit.

NZD: Outperformance vs AUD. Neutral.

We expect NZD to range trade for now but outperform AUD. New Zealand's economic outlook has remained relatively strong with high migration and booming housing supporting growth. The RBNZ's Financial Stability Report this week also posed new concerns over rising house prices. This is likely to be enough to offset the RBNZ worries over the inflation outlook and, in particular, the exchange rate. However, we don't rule out another rate cut or even FX intervention, though the latter would occur only after substantially more FX appreciation. We expect NZDUSD to continue to depreciate due to the USD rally but unless we get substantially higher bond yields or a hit to risk appetite, we expect NZD outperformance of AUD in the near term.