The OPEC decision will be made on Thursday, Nov 27, but at what time?
The main event on the economic calendar on Thursday is the OPEC decision in Vienna. Several countries are hoping for a production cut but signs are strongly pointing to no change in quotas. The best oil bulls can hope for at this point is a pledge to adhere more closely to current quotas.
When will an official announcement come?
There is no set time or embargoed release of the decision, it usually leaks out of the meeting room shortly before the official announcement from Secretary General Abdallah Salem el-Badri.
Watch for a white puff of smoke at 1240 GMT.
At the most-recent meeting on June 11, headlines about no change in quotas first crossed at 6:58 am ET. The press conference began about an hour later.
At the previous meeting, on Dec 4, 2013, the first headlines crossed at 7:40 am ET. The May 31, 2013 meeting decision first leaked out about a minute earlier at 7:39 am GMT.
In general, the press conference is scheduled for 2 pm Vienna time, which is 1300 GMT but it can be changed on the fly. The decision usually leaks 20 minutes or more earlier.
This meeting is especially likely to run long because some nations are desperate for a cut. Reuters reported earlier today:
An OPEC delegate from one of the smaller oil producers suggested on Wednesday that the group’s meeting could be prolonged:
“They must agree, even if they have to stay here for two days. It is a matter of death or survival for budgets,” the delegate said.
“It might take a bit longer than the ordinary meetings.”
What’s different this time is that the press conference is scheduled for 1600 local time, which is two hours later than normal. The headlines usually leak out about 20 minutes before the press conference so 1440 GMT would be a good spot for the over/under.
OPEC schedule
Bottom line: Begin looking for headlines at 1230 GMT (7:30 am ET) but don’t expect anything for at least another hour. If we get past 1445 GMT, the market will begin to become concerned there is no consensus and that points to a higher likelihood of a surprise cut so oil could begin to climb.
