The views of 17 ( count' em) larger institutions courtesy of our friends at efxnews.com where you will receive client notes a-plenty
Goldman Sachs: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (May): 210K, Unemployment Rate (May): 5.4%, Average Hourly Earnings YoY (May): 0.3%.
Deutsche Bank: 275K, 5.4%, 0.2%.
SEB: 230K, 5.3%, 0.2%.
CIBC: 200K, 5.3%, 0.3%.
SocGen: 227K, 5.3%, 0.3%.
Wesptac: 225K, 5.4%.
Morgan Stanley: The focus is likely to switch back to global events and the US in particular today with the release of the US nonfarm payroll data. The market is likely looking for another robust report, given the strong readings from other employment surveys, including the ADP, Challenger and the continued historically low readings of initial claims. This points to a strong labour market report, where the market consensus is for a 226k reading (MS: 215k). Given recent reductions in positioning, where USD longs have been scaled back, we would see potential for USD to rally today if the markets' assumption of a strong reading is seen.
RBS: 245K. 2.3% While still below levels Fed Chair Yellen considers normal, a 2.3% y/y rise in average hourly earnings would match the largest y/y increase since 2009. They expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4%. FX View: Stronger-than-expected employment should keep the Fed on pace to hike the Fed Funds rate in September, and pulling forward of expectations could support the USD. A stronger USD and pulled-forward rate hike expectations could pressure commodity prices and weigh on commodity exporter currencies.
Credit Suisse: +220K , 5.4% rate , unchanged from the prior month. Hourly earnings are expected to rise from the below-trend reading last month to +0.3% (consensus: +0.2%).
BNPP: +240k 0.2% , 5.4%. Numbers in line with this forecast should be consistent with at least some shift forward in Fed rate hike expectations towards the September meeting and help the USD extend gains vs. the JPY and most other currencies. EURUSD price action might be more complicated on a strong release, with the EUR's recent sensitivity to developments in long-end yields suggesting caution in the immediate aftermath of a strong US report. If, on the other hand, payroll growth were to disappoint, we could see renewed capitulation on long USD positions, particularly vs. higher yielding currencies, as markets continue to lose confidence in the Fed's capacity to hike rates this year.
Credit Agricole: +210k The standard deviation of forecasters is 25k so our outlook still sits above a one-standard deviation miss. Still, the recent tone of economic data supports an upbeat view on payrolls...We think the Fed's bar to hike is low but appetite to hike is strong, which supports our short-term upbeat view on the USD, especially against EUR, JPY and CHF.
Barclays: +225k , 5.3% , 0.2% m/m
BofA Merrill:+220,000, 5.4% This would imply a modest pickup from the 3-month average of 191,000 but slightly softer than the 6-month trend of 255,000. The labor market was exceptionally strong at the end of last year with job growth averaging 324,000 a month in 4Q14, running at a pace that was nearly three times the rate needed to keep up with labor force growth. Some cooling in the pace of job growth was therefore to be expected. Looking ahead, we expect job growth of approximately 200,000 a month, which would imply a healthy improvement in the labor market.
Danske: We forecast +200k (as indicated by the ADP report), which is also the consensus expectation. Manufacturing is likely to remain the weak spot with the service sector the main driver of job growth. Average hourly earnings is likely to get a lot of investor attention, as a rebound from last month and any indication of a more clear upward trend in wage inflation would help convince the dovish FOMC members that a 2015 rate hike is warranted.
BTMU: +240k That level of gain may well be enough to see the unemployment rate drift further lower. If we get a 5.3% print today that would leave the unemployment rate just 0.1ppt above the top of the FOMC's estimated range for where the rate is expected to average in Q4.
Nomura: +190k , 5.4% and expect the decline in the rate to be slower as we approach the upper bound of the FOMC's long-run forecast for the unemployment rate, at 5.2%.
UBS: +205K rise in payrolls and a further 0.1% decline in unemployment, in line with fairly positive assessments of labour market trends.