Is Greece or the Troika in the driving seat for a deal?
Tsipras gambled big and it paid off. In trading terms he doubled down and got lucky.
So has that swung him into the high seat at the negotiating table?
Tsipras was in a win win position in terms of Greek citizens. Lose the vote and sign the deal and he becomes a PM that listens to the people. Win the vote and play hard with Europe and he gets the same respect
The only place he could lose would be in his own party and within parliament, but then who's going to argue with him when the people have spoken?
As far as the Troika are concerned they now face a big decision. If they stick to their guns on the terms of a deal and try to force Greece's hand they go into direct competition with the wishes of the Greek people. On paper it becomes a fight between ordinary Greeks and the EU overlords. Tsipras is now even more importantly the mouthpiece of those people. How can Europe fight against such a democratic statement? Isn't that democratic process at the fundamental heart of Europe?
The tide of this battle has definitely changed now. Tsipras has managed to put himself in a position to call the shots and the Troika are now the headless chickens trying to work out how to play it. If they don't change the deal then the blood of any exit will be on their hands not Tsipras's
Tsipras took a huge leap of faith and the people backed him. There's no bigger vote of confidence than that and Europe should not underestimate that
h/t @victorleonardib
