Here's the latest league standing from the big players and the price levels to watch
As you know it's an early NFP this week as the yanks want to relax and have a long weekend. All the players have checked their seaweed and tea leaves and made their choices for this month
We're looking for a more conservative 233k following the very decent 280k last month. Adam has all the numbers that matter as usual in his non farm payrolls by the numbers post
As far as the forecasters go here's the league table, prior position in the top 5 and their guesses for today
- (-) Nariman Behravesh - IHS Global 199k
- (-) Ted Wiesman - Morgan Stanley 215k
- Wesbury/Stein - First Trust 240k
- Girard/Berger - RBS Securities 255k
- (4)Max Clark IDEAglobal 230k
NFP pickers league
And what about the market reaction?
Two of the last three results have broken the average market reaction in USDJPY over the first 30 minutes after release
Market reaction
Those results were;
- 5 June 280k vs 225k exp (+55 diff)
- 8 May 223k vs 225k exp (-2)
- 3 Apr 126k vs 245k exp (-119k)
This gives us an idea of what any variation will do in the price of USDJPY
Let's see if we can equate that into the prices for today and look at what levels may be in play
UP
- 123.60 has been an S&R level through June as has 123.75. They're both too close to the price to stand up to anything other than a bang on number and they may not even do that.
- 123.95/124.00 will find resistance on a mild beat or somewhere close to expectations, say +10/20k
- We'll find 124.35/40 much tougher. 124.65/70 is next resistance above there and 124.90/125.00 will probably play a big part in a really decent beat say, around 75-100k.
- I would be looking at the 124.65/70 as the first ideal stretch point
Down
- The 100 & 55 H4 ma's sit 123.25 which is just above the old 38.2 fib of the May swing up at 123.18. That's been a natural S&R level through June too so again, watch it on a minor miss.
- 122.55 should be made of sterner stuff under there as will the 55 dma at 122.23
- 122.10/00/121.90, the area around the end of June lows is looking good for a big miss
- 121.50 would be the gone too far point unless NFP prints a negative number
That at least gives us some numbers to play with over and after the release. Keep in mind the earnings numbers as they could act as a drag or secondary boost to price moves if they bust a big move
Don't forget also to enter our NFP competition for a chance to win a copy of Greg's book. Entries only on this link please
