Currency analysts at Goldman Sachs make the case for selling AUD/USD
They outline five reasons for continued weakness.
1. Australian is poorly positioned to transition from commodity exports to traditional manufacturing or services exports. The high AUD held back investment in those areas and it will take an extended period of Aussie weakness to awaken them.
"The process of rebalancing is far from complete," Goldman Sachs writes although there are some signs of life.
Within the commodity bloc, AUD may also be a laggard. It's more reliant on sales of raw materials than any of its peers.
2. Services exports have improved in recent quarters but they would need to massively increase to make up for the commodity sector. The slow current pace of improvement suggests it will take years to fill the gap.
3. A Goldman Sachs model shows that four main categories of non-commodity exports could be most positively effected by the lower Australian dollar -- tourism, manufacturing ex-machinery & transport, exports like sugar and beverages, and business/financial services.
4. This shows that a low AUD is already helping but Goldman says it's not enough to halt the Aussie decline. In order for it to give a lasting boost, it needs to remain weak and that will be the goal of policymakers. In the meantime, it may overshoot on the downside.
They expect the RBA to recognize these risks and ease in November and forecast AUD/USD will touch 0.6700 within six months (spot at 0.7074).
