The European Central Bank will be raising rates tonight. Expectations are roughly split on a 25bp or 50bp hike. Of even more interest though will be details of the Bank's proposed anti-fragmentation tool:
- this is intended to support vulnerable peripheral government bond markets (Italy, for example) - i.e limiting peripheral yield spikes (i.e. peripheral bond sell-offs)
ECB announcement is due at 1215 GMT (note the new scheduled times)
- press conference follows at 1245 GMT
- for previews, see under the chart below
Also coming up Thursday 21 July 2022, Italian politics
And, Nordstream flows are expected to recommence, but in a limited state (I've seen credible forecasters tipping as low as 20% of capacity):
- Germany gas transportation company says it assumes Nord Stream will return at 40%
- Goldman Sachs reiterates its view that Russia will return gas to Nordstream at just 40%
EUR/USD update - a bounce from under parity ... stay tuned for another drive under 1.00 (IMO):
---
ECB previews:
- Goldman Sachs preview the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting coming on July 21
- ECB policymakers reportedly to discuss 50 bps rate hike this week
- Preview of the ECB monetary policy (rate hike) meeting coming up on Thursday 21 July
- ECB to signal end of an era this week; Expect 25bp but more is not unthinkable - BofA
- Newsquawk Week Ahead - Highlights: ECB, BoJ, UK/CA/NZ inflation data, UK debates
