That might be what it is with the bond market to start the year. 10-year Treasury yields were seen moving towards 1.8% to 2.0% at some point during the year, but it all came in the opening few weeks and that is leaving us with where we are now.

USGG10YR D1 24-01

10-year yields are retreating further by another 3 bps today to 1.719%, nearly 20 bps lower from the highs of 1.90% last week.

In Europe, we're seeing similar moves with 10-year Italian bond yields slipping 5 bps to 1.305% - its lowest since mid-December and UK 10-year gilt yields are down 4 bps to 1.12% - its lowest since 14 January.

One can argue that geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Russia are part to blame here but it could just be purely flows. I mentioned this last week:

"We're already seeing yields fall into the target region (1.8% to 2.0%) and I fear that the selloff in bonds may be one that is going a bit too far, too fast. If you remember last year, we saw yields surge from January to March only to stall thereafter and meander through to August. I fear we could see a similar kind of scenario play out in the opening months this year."

Perhaps the market got a little too excited and now we're seeing some moderation.