What would a new year be without 10 new surprises from Blackstone's Byron Wien, who now makes the list with chief investment strategist Joe Zidle?
I've covered this one for more than a decade and it always makes for interesting discussions.
To start, here is his list for last year, which was considerably better than the year before where I'd say he got 2 of 10 right. He defines 'surprises' as events that a normal investor would only assign a one-in-three chance of taking place.
- The S&P 500 is flat in 2022 and value outperforms growth
- CPI rises 4.5% for 2022 and persistent inflation becomes the dominant theme
- Yield on the 10-year note rises to 2.75%
- Group meetings and conventions return to pre-pandemic levels
- China curbs speculative investment in real estate
- The price of gold rallies by 20%, crypto continues to gain share
- Crude rises above $100 per barrel
- Nuclear power has a renaissance
- Government enforces new ESG reporting standards
- US can't buy enough lithium to power planned electric vehicles
Some of those are bland but he had a great batting average and his main mistake was under-estimating how far some of his themes would run. It's also a reminder of just how surprising 2022 was.
Now for the 2023 list, which is unfortunately far more 'consensus' than 'surprise'.
- There are new headliner names on 2024 Presidential tickets
- Fed remains in a tug-of-war with inflation
- Fed overstays its time in restrictive territory, there's a mild recession
- The stock market bottoms in mid-2023
- MMT is discredited because deficits prove to be inflationary
- The Fed remains more hawkish than other central banks and the dollar stays strong, creating 'generational opportunity' for USD-holders to invest in Europe and Japan
- China edges towards 5.5% growth, with positive implications for real assets and commodities
- WTI touches $50 this year
- Ceasefire in H2 in Ukraine and negotiations begin
- Elon gets Twitter back on the path to recovery by year end
Read the full list here.
