Canada July employment change -6.4K versus 21.1 K estimate

• Prior report 59.9K
• Employment change for July -6.4K vs 21.1K estimate
• Unemployment rate 5.5% vs 5.5% expected. Last month unemployment rate was at 5.4%. 3rd consecutive monthly increase
• Full time employment 1.7K vs 109.6K last month
• Part-time employment -8.1K vs -49.8 K last month
• Participation rate 65.6% vs 65.7% last month
• Average hourly earnings 5.0% versus 4.2% (revised from 3.9%) last month
• Total hours worked were virtually unchanged in July and were up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis

Sluggish growth in employment after a stronger-than-expected gain last month. Earnings move higher

Some other highlights:

• Employment in construction fell by 45,000, a 2.8% decrease.
• Public administration saw a decrease of 17,000 employees, a 1.4% drop.
• The information, culture, and recreation sectors lost 16,000 workers, a 1.8% reduction.
• There was a 1.3% decrease in transportation and warehousing employment, equating to 14,000 jobs.
• Health care and social assistance saw an increase of 25,000 employees, a 0.9% rise.
• Employment in educational services rose by 19,000, an increase of 1.3%.
• Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing sectors gained 15,000 jobs, a 1.1% increase.
• Agriculture employment rose by 12,000, a substantial 4.6% increase.

Where are the jobs being created and lost?

Detailed summary of the unemployment rate:

• The unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 5.5% in July, following increases in May and June. This marks the first three-month consecutive rise since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The unemployment rate for female youth (aged 15 to 24) rose 1.5 percentage points from April to July, reaching 10.3%.
• During the same period, the unemployment rate for core-aged women and women aged 55 and older increased by 0.8 percentage points, to 5.0% and 4.3% respectively.
• There was negligible change in the unemployment rate for men across all age groups.
• In July 2023, over half (53.6%) of the unemployed had been outside the labor force prior to becoming unemployed, while 38.7% had lost or left a job.
• The remaining 7.7% of the unemployed were either on temporary layoff or waiting to start a new position, figures that have barely changed from the previous year.

The USDCAD moved lower and then back to the upside after the US and Canada reports. The price is trading above and below the 50% of the move down from the end of May high at 1.33729. The price high stalled ahead of its falling 100 day moving average at 1.3400. The high price reached 1.33932 and backed off. The current price is trading at 1.3372.