SP global PMI

It's been all about the PMIs from S&P Global today as the releases circle the map.

"I would bet on downside misses from all of them," I wrote yesterday.

That's exactly what we've gotten so far with the exception of the UK:

  • Germany July flash manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 50.6 expected
  • France July flash services PMI 52.1 vs 52.7 expected
  • Eurozone July flash services PMI 50.6 vs 52.0 expected
  • UK July flash services PMI 53.3 vs 53.0 expected
  • Australia July flash Manufacturing PMI 55.7 (prior 56.2) & Services 50.4 (prior 52.6)
  • Japan Jibun Markit preliminary manufacturing PMI July 52.2 (prior 52.7)
  • If anything, I've been surprised that they haven't been even weaker but you can see the narrative changing in the bond market as a relentless bid drives down yields. The terminal Fed top is now at 3.38% in December and falling to 2.81% by Nov 2023.
  • We still have one more big PMI to come with the US release at 10 am ET and expected at 52.0 on manufacturing and 52.6 on services. Indications are that manufacturing will miss.

    Before that, we get Canadian retail sales for May at the bottom of the hour. The headline is expected to pick up to 1.6% but the advance number for June will be key.