The New York Times reports that early intelligence shows that Iranian leaders were surprised by the Hamas attack.

That goes against a report on Saturday from the WSJ's Summer Said that said Iran helped plot the attack on Israel over several weeks.

The level of Iran's involvement in the attack is a key question for the oil market. If Iran is shown to be highly-involved it could mean a military response or at least harsher sanctions against Iran's oil.

"The United States, Israel and key regional allies have not found evidence that Iran directly helped plan the attack, according to the U.S. officials and another official in the Middle East," the NYT report said.

What will be a lingering question in Israel is how such a large operation in an area that's spied on intensely could have gone undetected.

Ultimately though, Iran and Hamas are close and these barbaric attacks will have consequences for Iran. However the US has quietly eased enforcing sanctions against Iran under the Biden administration as it tries to keep oil prices low for US consumers.

Oil daily
Oil daily