- US initial jobless claims 218K vs 220K estimate
- ECB's Lane: We need to be further along in the disinflation
- US sells 30-year bonds at 4.360% vs 4.380% WI
- Fed's Collins: My baseline for rate cuts this year is 'similar' to the 75 bps in the SEP
- ECBs Holtzman: There is a certain chance that ECB will not cut rates this year
- Richmond Fed Pres Barkin: Need to see more data to build confidence in inflation falling
- Fed's Barkin cautions that economic data around the turn of the year can deceive
- BOE's Mann: My vote to hike was a "finely balanced" decision
- More from Mann: A drop in services inflation could persuade me to vote to hold
- US December wholesale sales +0.7% vs +0.2% expected
- Mexican central bank leaves rates unchanged at 11.25%
- Gold down $1 to $2033
- WTI crude oil up $2.69 to $76.54
- US 10-year yields up 5.8 bps to 4.156%
- S&P 500 up 2 points to 4997
- CAD leads, JPY lags
Crosscurrents were the story in markets today. The yen fell hard on a technical break of 148.50 combined with some dovish Bank of Japan comments. That move extended to 149.48 in US trading before stalling there in several attempts. The dollar side got a lift early from higher Treasury yields but that move hit a bump in the road as the sale of 30s drew strong demand.
Bids for the euro and pound emerged as London trading wound down. That ultimately erased what had been 40-50 pip moves lower with both finishing flat on the day. Just when it looked like the GBP/USD range was finally dead-and-buried, the pair pushed right back up against it.
US CPI revisions are due tomorrow in an event that Powell said he had circled on his calendar. Last year's higher revisions stunned the Fed so the stakes are high but risks run in both directions. Furthermore, changes in services inflation will be particularly impactful. Ultimately, there will be several moving parts here and we're only a week away from the January CPI report so risks abound.
Oil was one of the crosscurrents as steady bids drove it to $76.50 from $74.00. The Middle East picture remains murky but there are notable signs of global tightness like oil-on-water and the lack of a meaningful US winter supply build. The EIA yesterday talked about much slower US supply growth as well and that eventually gained some traction.