- SNB's Jordan: Lower inflation pressure allowed them to lower interest rates
- US sells 7-year notes at 4.185% vs 4.193% WI
- EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +3165K vs -1275K expected
- US judge rules that Coinbase failed to register as a securities business
- South African reserve bank keeps repo rate at 8.25%
Markets:
- S&P 500 up 45 points, or 0.9%
- Gold up $15 to $2194
- US 10-year yields down 4.6 bps to 4.19%
- WTI crude oil up 10-cents to $81.72
- JPY leads, EUR lags
FX closing moves were small today as the market sorts through quarter-end and waits for some meaningful economic data. The economic calendar was bare today save for oil inventories and a 7-year auction. The fixed income sale was strong and that put downward pressure on yields and led to some dollar selling that reversed earlier gains.
On net, we have the euro down 2 pips on the day and the pound up 13 with commodity currencies broadly flat. That's hardly the kind of price action to get the pulse racing but there were some moves in Asia and into the London fix.
Eyes are on the yen after the threat of intervention. The market doesn't appear to be overly worried though as the Asia lows were bought in a steady 20 pip rise. With a slate of Japanese data coming up on Friday that includes CPI, retail sales, employment and industrial production, eyes will remain on the yen.
I like this take from BMO on the broader picture:
The US rates market (and arguably the financial market more broadly) is taking a step back from trading the macro story – at least that is the sense we’ve gathered from the combination of the price action and conversations with market participants. Last week’s Fed events have set the stage for a June rate cut if all goes according to expectations and as a result, volatility is on the decline and the incentive to establish new positions has decreased. Those with core positions for the year are holding them, but there is little incentive to add here in the middle of the range.
That said, comments from Waller shortly could re-introduce some volatility.
