The USD moved lower into the close yesterday after the FOMC kept rates unchanged and the Fed Chair was a little more dovish - at least in the short term.

The USD selling continued into the early APAC session and has not let up much. US yields continued their fall with the US 2 year yield reaching 4.925% before bouncing up to 4.954% (reached the lowest since early September). The 10-year moved to a low of 4.707% (now at 4.722%). That was the lowest since October 17.

Looking at the USD, it is the weakest of the major currencies with the largest declines vs the NZD and the AUD.(-0.75% and -0.63% respectively). The NZD and the AUD benefitted from risk-on flows, and also expectations that next week, the RBA may raise rates by 0.25% to 4.35%.


Technically, there were some shifts in the bias for some of the major currencies:

  • EURUSD. The EURUSD moved back above its 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.0579 and 1.05868 respectively. Yesterday the yield fell down to test the low of a swing area between 1.0520 and 1.05316 before reverting into the close back toward the 100 hour moving average. Going forward, staying above the moving averages will keep the buyers more in control.
  • GBPUSD. The GBPUSD on Tuesday reached a high near 1.2200. Yesterday the low price extended down toward the support near 1.2088 and 1.20924. The low price rate 1.20949 just above that area. In trading today, the price extended above its 200-hour moving average at 1.2151 with momentum. The price high has reached 1.21955. Getting above 1.2200, would increase the bullish bias.
  • USDJPY. The USDJPY reached a high on Tuesday near the close at 151.707, and has stepped down since then. Today, the price fell below the 100-hour moving average 150.283 and the 50% midpoint of the move up from last week's low at 150.252. However, support near 150.15 (recall it was the high-priced flowing back to October 2) stalled the fall. The rising 200-hour moving average at 150.132 was also near the lows. The price is currently trading at 150.37. If the price can stay above 200 hour moving average the buyers are still in play despite the sharp fall. A move below that moving average and the focus shifts more to the downside technically.
  • AUDUSD. The AUDUSD is one of the biggest movers rising by 0.63% today. The run higher took the price toward the October 11 hi at 0.6445. The high price reached 0.6439. The current price is trading at 0.6428. A move above the October high should open the door for further upside momentum going forward.
  • NZDUSD: The NZDUSD is the biggest dinner with a rise of 0.75%. Its move higher took the price to the high of a swing area between 0.5879 and 0.58945. The high price has reached the high of that swing area at 0.58954 before slowing down. The current price rate of 0.5886. Close support is at 0.5880.

Wishing you all good fortune in your trading.