- Magnitude 4.9 earthquake off the coast of Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
- ICYMI - China loosened its Covid-19 restrictions in city with key Apple iPhone plant
- China's air traffic has sunk down to 35% of what it was in 2019
- Bank of England Chief Economist Pill speaking Wednesday, 30 November 2022
- Hong Kong central bank says there is no plan or need to change the USD/HKD peg
- More on China's Nov. PMI plunge into deep contraction for both manufacturing and services
- China official Manufacturing PMI 48.0 (expected 49.0) & Services 46.7 (expected 48.0)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1769 (vs. estimate at 7.1790)
- BoA forecast 3 more Fed rate hikes to terminal rate of 5.25% in March, cuts from Dec '23
- Australian monthly CPI cools a little - AUD/USD little changed
- Australian private sector credit growth for October +0.6% m/m (expected +0.6%)
- Australian October building permits -6.0% m/m (expected -1.8%)
- Australian Q3 construction work completed +2.2% q/q (expected +1.5%)
- Australian monthly CPI inflation (October 2022) 6.9% y/y (expected 7.4%)
- New Zealand business confidence (November) -57.1% (prior -42.7%)
- Magnitude 5.9 earthquake in Alberta area, Canada
- Japan data - October preliminary industrial production -2.6% m/m (expected -1.5%)
- ICYMI - JPMorgan sees the Bank of England Bank Rate rising to 4.25% by Q1 2023
- RBA is expected to hike its cash rate by 25 bps in December, February, and March to 3.60%
- South Korea data - industrial output drops at its fastest m/m rate since May of 2020
- Coinbase Global's wallet set to delist a suite of cryptocurrencies due to "low usage"
- Chevron will ship the first Venezuelan crude shipment under a US licence in late December
- NZ data - October building permits -10.7% m/m (prior +3.6%)
- Oil - JP Morgan forecasts a lower average price per barrel for 2023
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 30 November 2022
- Oil inventory survey shows larger draw than expected
- S&P close lower. Dow unchanged on the day
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: OPEC leaks suggest no cut
Both China’s November manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs missed estimates and slumped under the October reading, heading more deeply into contraction. Given widespread COVID outbreaks and associated lockdowns and other restrictions the results are not too much of a shock. China’s National Bureau of Statistics noted slowing on both the demand and production sides.
Australian monthly CPI data was published today. The headline came in at 6.9% y/y (from the previous month’s 7.3%) while ‘core’ trimmed mean inflation was unchanged on the month at 5.3%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics implemented their annual reweighting of components in the data today. If this was not done the headline would have been 7.1% instead of 6.9%. Some of the reweightings are curious. That for rental costs was weighted lower, at a time when rents are surging in response to the housing shortage. Power costs (electricity) were also taken lower at a time of surging energy prices. Curious indeed.
The monthly CPI needs to be interpreted with care as it excludes around 30% of the quarterly CPI, including energy. The 6.9% figure, though, will keep the Reserve Bank of Australia on its rate hike path next week (the meeting is Tuesday, December 6 local time) at a +0.25% move.
In further data, both South Korean and Japanese industrial production data came in worse than expected. The South Korean data showed factory output fell at its fastest m/m since May of 2020, early in the pandemic. South Korea is often viewed as a leading indicator for the global economy; the contraction in factory production, with service sector output slumping too, is a negative sign.
From New Zealand, business activity indicators fell further, as did business confidence in the most recent ANZ NZ Business Outlook survey. Inflation expectations hit a record high.
EUR and GBP both gained against the US dollar during the session. The magnitude of moves was small. Bitcoin rose back above US$17K at one stage.