- Barclays slashed their Brent Crude oil price forecast by $8 a barrel
- WSJ survey of economists indicates that the probability of a US recession is down sharply
- Household spending in Australia, December, -3.1% m/m (prior +1.8%)
- Reports Qatar appears to have stopped sending LNG tankers through Bab el-Mandeb Strait
- JP Morgan's CEO Dimon warns inflation may be stickier, rates higher, than markets expect
- Oil - Houthis fired an anti-ship cruise missile at a US Navy ship
- Mr. JGB: Japan's stable inflation target achievable in 2024, but not in the way BOJ thinks
- People's Bank of China left its MLF rate unchanged - recap
- Schumer says US congressional leaders have agree to a stopgap funding measure
- People's Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (prior 2.5%)
- Japan's 2 year yield has dropped back under zero, first time since July 2023
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1084 (vs. estimate at 7.1684)
- Australian private survey of inflation soared by 1% m/m in December, the most in 17 months
- Taiwan's Presidential election: Pro-sovereignty DPP's William Lai wins
- People's Bank of China interest rate cut expected today
- UBS targets higher for the S&P 500, sees strong earnings, strong economy
- Six arrested in plot to shut down the London Stock Exchange
- Barclays moved its forecast for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to March (from June)
- Weekend: ECB chief economist Philip Lane nominates June 'key data' for rate cuts
- Weekend: Ex-PBoC official says China’s property downturn may continue for two more years
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 15 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 15 January 2024
- Weekly Market Outlook (15-19 January)
- Why the bitcoin ETF inflows are a huge disappointment
It was a day of light market news flow only, although there were some potentially significant items for energy markets:
- there are reports that Qatar has stopped its shipments of LNG through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (and thus the Suez Canal)
- Houthis fired a cruise missile at a US Navy ship
If you take a glance at the oil price its up, but barely noticeable.
In political news we had
- the Saturday election in Taiwan saw William Lai, of the pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), elected President, although the party did lose its parliamentary majority
- US Senate Democratic leader Schumer said congressional leaders have agreed to a stopgap funding measure
In central bank developments, the People’s Bank of China set the rate on this month’s Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) at an unchanged rate of 2.5% despite wide (but not unanimous) expectations of a 10bp cut. This despite continued disinflation in China and is reflective of the concern the PBoC have of yuan weakness prompting capital outflow.
USD/JPY
rose on the session, the drop in 2-year Japanese Government Bond
yields back below zero weighed on the yen.
It was a mixed bag
across the major currencies. The USD was net weaker against the EUR,
GBP and CAD. AUD and NZD underperformed.
Offshore yuan is higher on the session.
