Headlines:
- BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.25% as expected
- BOE's Bailey: We are not yet at a point where we can lower rates
- Bailey Q&A: We need to see evidence of services inflation easing back
- US futures see a light bounce, Treasury yields still looking heavy
- ECB's Centeno: If inflation trajectory holds, the next step will be to cut rates
- Eurozone January preliminary CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected
- Eurozone December unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected
- Eurozone January final manufacturing PMI 46.6 vs 46.6 prelim
- UK January final manufacturing PMI 47.0 vs 47.3 prelim
- Switzerland January manufacturing PMI 43.1 vs 44.5 expected
- US January Challenger layoffs 82.31k vs 34.82k prior
Markets:
- USD leads, AUD lags on the day
- European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%
- US 10-year yields down 3.4 bps to 3.931%
- Gold down 0.1% to $2,034.35
- WTI crude up 0.3% to $76.07
- Bitcoin down 0.9% to $42,100
The main highlight of the session was the BOE policy decision and there was plenty to scrutinise on that.
The central bank dropped its tightening bias, reaffirming its data-dependent guidance and current stance of keeping rates higher for longer. The bank rate votes were interesting, with Haskel and Mann continuing to vote for a 25 bps rate hike. Meanwhile, the most dovish member of the board, Dhingra, voted for a 25 bps rate cut instead.
The mix of that saw GBP/USD rise from 1.2640 to 1.2660 ahead of BOE governor Bailey's press conference.
Bailey then emphasised on stickier inflation and that offered no hints of when the central bank might look to cut rates. That helped GBP/USD rise to 1.2880 levels before abating slightly now.
Looking outside of sterling, the dollar was the dominant force in the FX space. The post-Fed flows are continuing as traders gear towards the US jobs report tomorrow. EUR/USD fell briefly to a seven-week low of 1.0780 before keeping just above 1.0800 again now.
Meanwhile, the antipodean currencies suffered even with a slight bounce in equities sentiment on the day. AUD/USD is down 0.8% to 0.6515 and threatening a break of key technical levels as highlighted here.
In other markets, stocks are seeing a light bounce after the heavy sell off yesterday. But with the prospect of non-farm payrolls coming on Friday, we might see any rebound be a more tentative one. As for the bond market, Treasuries continue to look heavy but that isn't quite fazing the dollar so far this week.
