With Macron polling at 55.5%, the market has largely looked past the French election but crazier things have happened than a Le Pen upset.
The Interior Ministry said turnout was 63.23% at 1700 CET and that compares to 65.3%. If Macron voters are staying home, she has a chance.
Another scary stat is from the French overseas colonies. They voted yesterday and the results are in.
Macron has badly underperformed how he did in 2017:
- Guadeloupe: 30% vs 75%
- Martinique: 39% vs 77%
- French Guiana: 39% vs 65%
Now I suspect there are some local factors there related to harsh lockdowns during the pandemic but that's a huge spread.
