- Prior report 10.33 million revised 10.512M
- Job openings 10.458M vs 10.0M estimate.
- Hires rate 3.9% vs 4.0%
- Quits rate 2.7% vs 2.6% last month (down from 2.7%)
- Layoffs 0.9% vs 0.9% last month
- Turnover rate 3.8% vs 3.8% last month
- In November, job openings increased in professional and business services (+212,000) and in nondurable goods manufacturing (+39,000).
- The number of job openings decreased in finance and insurance (-75,000) and in federal government (-44,000).
The JOLTS job data is a favored measure for the Fed, but it is on a lag (November data). The BLS employment report will be released on Friday with expectations of 200K.
Nevertheless, the report continues to show more job strength with the job openings remaining near higher historic levels, and the quits rate ticking higher to 2.7% from 2.6% last month. A higher quits rate is indicative of a labor market that is confident in getting a new job.
Remember the Fed central tendencies sees the unemployment rate ticking to 4.6% from the current 3.7%. That employment measure may start to supersede the NFP number as it represents the slack in the jobs market. Right now at 3.7%, the employment is near multi decade lows of 3.5%. Staying near that level is going to keep the Fed concerned about the impact of wages on inflation going forward.
The problem is as baby boomers retire, the labor force will go down. Also immigration is generally slowing which limits the supply of workers as well. So tightening may not get the desired effect of a softening in the labor market for the Fed.
/inflation
