JOLTS job openings for March 9.595M vs 9.775 million estimate

• Prior month
• Job openings decreased to 9.6 million on the last business day of March, down by 384,000 and 1.6 million lower than in December.
• Job openings rate was 5.8% in March, down by 1.0 percentage point since December.
• Job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-144,000) but increased in educational services (+28,000).
• Hires remained stable at 6.1 million, with a rate of 4.0%.
• Hires decreased in real estate and rental and leasing (-29,000).
• Total separations (5.9 million) and the rate (3.8%) remained stable for the fourth month in a row.
• Total separations decreased in accommodation and food services (-107,000) but increased in construction (+104,000).
• Quits remained stable at 3.9 million, with a rate of 2.5%.
• Quits decreased in accommodation and food services (-178,000).
• Layoffs and discharges increased to 1.8 million (+248,000) with a rate of 1.2%.
• Layoffs and discharges increased in construction (+112,000), accommodation and food services (+63,000), and health care and social assistance (+42,000).
• Other separations remained stable at 276,000, decreasing in finance and insurance (-31,000) and real estate and rental and leasing (-7,000).

The trend is to the downside for JOLTS, but is still well up from the pre-pandemic levels which were centered around 7 million to 7.5 million. There are theories that the number has been gamed by companies who post jobs but are really not filling them (or in need). Working through what is true and not is difficult however.

Quits are watched for trends. If quits increase it shows that employees most likely are confident of getting another job. The quits remained steady at 3.9M.

The BLS will release the main jobs report on Friday with the expectations of a gain of 180K. The unemployment rate is expected to take up to 3.6% from 3.5%.

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