Philly Fed index June 2022
  • Prior was +2.6
  • New orders -12.4 versus 22.1 last month
  • Employment 28.1 versus 25.5 last month
  • Six month capex 11.7 vs 9.6 last month
  • Six month outlook -6.8 vs 2.5 last month
  • Prices paid 64.5 versus 78.9 last month

It's really starting to look like a recession. Today we got this, a big disappointment in housing starts and even a small miss on jobless claims . This is the worst reading since the pandemic.

Notably, prices paid are still expanding but at a much slower pace. There's a risk the Fed is slamming on the brakes at a time when supply chains are easing and the market is doing much of the work for it.