Next week, US CPI and Canada employment highlight the economic releases, while interest rate decisions in Australia and the EU are key central bank. Below are the major releases and events for next week's trading:
Tuesday, June 7
- Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision at 12:30 AM ET/430 GMT. The reserve Bank of Australia expected to raise rates by 25 basis points although there are others who expect up to 50 basis points. A total of 22 of 35 analysts look for a 25 basis point hike while 11 look for 40 basis points. There is one analyst looking for 50 basis points and 1 that is looking for no change at all. Of the big 4 Australian banks, ANZ and WPAC are calling for 40 basis points, while CBA and NAB are looking for 25 basis points.
- Canada Ivey purchasing managers index at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. The Ivey PMI is expected to come in at 64.3 vs. 66.3. Historically the PMI index is very volatile. Be aware
Thursday , June 9
- ECB rate decision. 7:45 AM ET/1145 GMT. The ECB will keep rates unchanged at 0.0%. The ECB has telegraphed that until the asset purchase program is complete in June, they will not move rates. The expectations are for a 25 basis point hike in July. Year and estimates are up to 125 basis points. There are some members looking for 50 basis points to combat the higher than expected CPI inflation which top out at 8.1% this month. At 8:30 AM, ECB's Lagarde will have her traditional press conference
- US initial jobless claims. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. The estimate is for 205K after the 200K increases week
- Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will speak. The Bank of Canada raise rates by 50 basis points this week. There is no press conference after the decision. As a result this will be the first opportunity for Macklem to speak about the rate hike
Friday, June 10
- Canada employment change. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Employment change expected at 25.5K vs 15.3K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.2%
- US CPI. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Month-to-month 0.7% vs. 0.3%. Year on year 8.2% vs. 8.3%. Core 0.5% vs. 0.6% last month. Core year on year 5.9% vs. 6.2% last month.
- Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary. 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. 56.9 vs. 58.4 last month
Also next week, the US treasury will auction off
- $44 billion of 3 year notes on Tuesday,
- $33 billion of 10 year (9 year 11 month) notes on Wednesday, and
- $19 billion of 30 year bonds (29 year and 11 month) on Thursday