The yen was a notable move early in Asia trading with a push in USD/JPY from 134.70 to 135.22 before falling back to around 135.50-70 levels at the moment. For now, the hold below 135.00 is still key and will be the thing to watch going into the weekly close.

Elsewhere, there is little appetite among major currencies with fairly narrower ranges prevailing on the day. The fact that most dollar pairs are keeping within 20 pips change of one another exemplifies the lack of conviction on the session so far:


That said, there are a couple of market narratives that are at play and/or worth considering:

  • Market odds for the Fed terminal rate have been scaled back
  • The same can be said for the ECB and BOE this week too
  • The yen sought a further downside leg but has recovered since; strong technical pushback
  • Oil remains in a tricky spot as downside push keeps below key technical levels
  • Recession risks heighten with bond yields being pulled lower
  • Equities brush aside the jitters, focusing more on the fact that central bank bets are pared back perhaps?