The hype this week was all about the US CPI data and the reaction yesterday did not disappoint. However, it seems like market players are running out of steam today or it may just be another summer's day in Europe as things settle down and we are seeing light changes overall for the most part.
European indices are now little changed after a positive open, trading more mixed while US futures are still keeping slightly higher but the gains are rather measured. S&P 500 futures are up 11 points, or 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures are up by only 0.1% on the day.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields cratered initially to the release yesterday but picked itself up as rates showed little change in general but are slightly lower today. Perhaps 10-year yields are looking for a bigger play with a wedge/flag pattern forming at the moment:
While greed is the name of the game in the equities space, the bond market seems to be voting that not much has changed in terms of the Fed outlook after just one data point that may be hinting at inflation pressures easing slightly. I think the fact that Fed funds futures also dialed back a little higher to ~43% for a 75 bps rate hike next month (it was down to ~30% at one point) is a testament to that.
In FX, the dollar remains a little softer today but there are some key technical levels in play at the moment before any further downside leg for the greenback as outlined earlier:
- EUR/USD nudges higher as dollar stays sluggish
- GBP/USD looks to build on yesterday's gains amid heavy dollar
- USD/JPY taken on a see-saw ride by US economic releases
- USD/CAD looks to establish further downside leg after fall to two-month lows
- AUD/USD takes a peek above key resistance level on dollar struggles