The last few weeks in oil have been incredible.
Despite China lockdowns, risk aversion and global growth worries, it has been remarkably resilient. On Friday, it closed at a six week high in what looked like it could be the break of a pennant.
Today, it's a different story. Ultimately, oil depends on a healthy global demand backdrop and the ongoing rout in equities isn't painting that kind of picture.
With that, crude is now back to $105.35 from a high of $111.15 on Friday.
That messes up what had been a nice looking technical trade. As (almost) always, when the chart is too perfect, it doesn't work. Now there's the potential for a false breakout reversal. Or we continue to chop along in the $95-$115 range. In the latter case, I take that as a win for the bulls. Anything about $95 in this environment highlights supply shortages.
