US admin officals are scrambling to say "its not a recession!!!"

Today's GDP data from the US confirmed the country is in recession:

• US Q2 advance GDP -0.9% vs +0.5% expected

IF you use the common 'two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage' definition.

Not everyone uses that defintion, economists endlessly debate recession definitions. Believe me, it really is endless (and endlessly tedious IMO) ... Anyway, moving on.

The US does not, officially, use the 'two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage' definition. And thus the GDP data released on Thursday does not, officially, show a recession. As admin officials are shouting from the rooftops. The US has its own recession dating committee, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). They look across a number of economic indicators, including employment and industrial production, not just GDP. Given the strength in US employment the NBER will not be calling a H1 2022 recession. Additionally, there are a large number of economists expecting the Q1 (and therefore H1) figure to be revised higher in the future.

What about in quarters to come ? That's the question. The inversion of the yield Yield A yield represents the earnings generated by an investment or security over a certain time period. Yields are typically displayed in percentage terms and are in the form of interest or dividends received from it.These figures do not include the price variations, which separates it from the total return. Consequently, a yield applies to various stated rates of return on stocks, fixed income instruments such as bonds, and other types of investment products.Yields can be calculated as a ratio or as A yield represents the earnings generated by an investment or security over a certain time period. Yields are typically displayed in percentage terms and are in the form of interest or dividends received from it.These figures do not include the price variations, which separates it from the total return. Consequently, a yield applies to various stated rates of return on stocks, fixed income instruments such as bonds, and other types of investment products.Yields can be calculated as a ratio or as Read this Term curve points to a real recession risk ahead. .