CPI September 2022
Note the re-acceleration of core
  • Prior was +8.5%
  • +0.4% m/m vs +0.2% expected and 0.1% prior

Core CPI:

  • +6.5% y/y vs 6.5% expected and 6.3% prior
  • +0.6% m/m vs +0.5% expected and +0.6% prior

The Fed funds futures market was pricing in a terminal top at 4.65% in March just ahead of the data and that's up to 4.84%. The market is now pricing in an 13% chance of 100 bps on Nov 2. There have been some huge moves in markets on these numbers with the dollar soaring. S&P 500 futures went from +40 to -60.

USD/JPY is up to a fresh cycle high at 147.33 and that has all eyes on intervention. We're also seeing a new cycle low in AUD/USD, which is down 87 pips to 0.6188.