Is it too late for Will Smith memes? It feels like it was played out an hour after it happened.

JPY will smith meme

Justin has had some great coverage on the yen move today. He highlighted the BOJ's increasingly desperate yield-curve-control operations as a catalyst before the latest huge breakdown in the yen.

In terms of price action, this has some of the hallmarks of a blowout and capitulation. Often in a parabolic move, you see these kinds of grand finales as those underwater throw in the towel. Once the sellers are exhausted, it's usually time to pick up the scraps.

The problem with that is Japan continues to double down on yield curve control and will buy unlimited bonds through month end. The end of March is also fiscal year end in Japan so there are real flows to counteract.

Eventually, the BOJ will be forced to be incrementally more hawkish and that could set up a squeeze in the other direction but it doesn't appear we're anywhere close to that year.

I suspect we will see an orderly market after the turn of the calendar and given delayed settlement that could come a couple days sooner. So while I don't think there's a case for catching a falling knife here, it will be worth watching very closely into month end.

USDJPY daily chart