Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 43 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 143 bps

  • ECB: 30 bps (81% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 143 bps

  • BoE: 44 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 143 bps

  • BoC: 81 bps (99% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 180 bps

  • RBA: 7 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 64 bps

  • RBNZ: 55 bps (78% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 163 bps

  • SNB: 29 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 73 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 7 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 33 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut