Below the swing low from April 29th
The EURUSD has dipped below the swing high from April 29 at 1.21494. The price moved above that level on Friday's run to the upside and apart from hour or in the early European session today, had stayed above the level until the last hourly bar saw the price break back below the level. Stay below is more bearish in the short term.
The price consolidates below 38.2%/recent swing area
The USDJPY is trading midrange after the Asian/early European sessions run higher stalled just ahead of the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below). Sellers leaned (the 100 hour MA was near that level as well).
S&P near unchanged after record close on Friday
The US stocks are opening mixed. The rotation out of the NASDAQ continues as Facebook and Alphabet are downgraded by Citibank to neutral. The Dow is trading at a new record high. The S&P is trading above below unchanged after Friday's record close.
Pair trends higher on the day
The GBPUSD has moved higher after Scottish national parties election push backed the potential for a independence vote. The pair trended to the highest level since February 25. The price has reached and intraday high at 1.4158. The high price for 2021 is at 1.4240 back on February 24.
Some of the relatively newer companies report along with Disney, Nissan, Toyota and Honda
As the successful earnings calendar starts to wind down, there still are some relatively interesting earnings releases this week including some of the newer companies. Disney, Nissan, Toyota and Honda will also release.
The USD is tilted to the downside.
The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is tilting to the downside. The Colonial pipeline is still down after a ransomware attack but is not supposed to disrupt supply for long. The price of copper and iron ore reached new all time highs overnight. The US will continue to digest the weaker than expected employment report "the Monday after", but the stock market rotation continues with S&P and Dow higher (and at record levels) while the Nasdaq index is down in pre-market trading. On Friday, the Nasdaq led the way higher with a gain of 119.40 points. The UK risk of a Scottish breakup was averted for now at least.
GBP/USD hits a session high of 1.4080
With the BOE in angling towards tapering last week and the market quickly brushing aside risks of a second Scottish independence referendum, the pound is on a tear to start the new week.
The dollar is under pressure technically across multiple pairs
After the NFP miss on Friday, the dollar was sold off and despite the bond market having second thoughts about the data blip, the greenback failed to recover and is staying pressured as we get things going in European trading today.
Weekly forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending May 4, 2021
- EUR long 85K vs 81K long last week. Longs increased by 4K
- GBP long 20K vs 29K long last week. Longs trimmed by 9K
Price is back below the 100/200 day MA
The USDCHF has moved lower with the dollar selling today and in the process has moved below and away from both the 100 and 200 day moving averages. Those moving averages come in at 0.9073 and 0.9084. The price has has trended down to a low of 0.9077.
Retraces most of the declines
Technically, the 50% of the move down from the April high comes in at 1.585%. The following 100 hour moving average comes in a 1.589%. The yield last traded above its 100 hour moving average on May 3.
New highs as London/European traders look to exit
The EURUSD is trading to a new session highs and in the process has broken above the April high of 1.2149 and trades the highest level since February 26. The next targets comes at 1.2169 and 1.2189.