What to expect. What are the technicals saying
The Australian wage price index will be released in the new trading day (0030 GMT, 11:30 AM AEDT). The expectations for the 3Q is for a QoQ gain of 0.6% (high +0.7%, low +0.5%). The YoY is expected to rise by 2.3%. The 2.3% gain would equal the lowest level in the survey's history (18 years). Those are the facts and expectations.
What are the technicals saying for the AUDUSD?
Looking at the hourly chart, the price today has seen the price move higher on the day after initially moving lower. The move higher took the price back above the 100 hour MA at 0.71126 (blue line in the chart above). The price has stayed above that MA over the last 11 hours. Below the 100 hour MA is the 200 hour MA at the 0.7092 level. These two moving averages will be key on a weaker number (0.5% or less).
At the highs today, the price stalled against the topside trend line (going back to Oct 23rd) Needless, to say this level represents a key level to get above if the buyers are going to continue the push higher.
The technicals set up the trade and potentially the next leg of a trend.
ON a stronger number (>0.7%), the trend line above will be the trigger for more gains. That trend line comes in at 0.7135 area. A move above - and staying above would next target the highs from Friday at 0.7157, then the 0.7198 level (50% of the move down from Oct 12 high). The 100 day MA comes in at 0.7223. Keep that level in mind too. It is in play on a strong number.
On the downside, a move below the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA, would open the door for further selling (stay below each). The 0. 7070-77 area has swing lows and highs and below that the low on Nov 11 comes in at 0.7040. The low price last week stalled at 0.70148 - just above the natural support at 0.7000.
Remember employment surged in the last employment report (last Thurday). The move higher was quick but traders raised an eyebrow to the gains. Yes there was a higher high on Friday but that was rejected. The low today found support near a pre-employment ceiling, but it seems the market wants to see a nice wage gain to go with the jobs gains. That would complete the fundamental picture for the pair. But the market needs to see it to believe it.
