The last time the price traded below that moving average was on September 23
The CADJPY (like other JPY pairs today) are same downside corrective action. The pair had remained above its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) for most of the trading month, and above its 200 hour moving average since September 23 (see green line in the chart below).
I wrote about the pair yesterday after the pair moved down to test and bounce off the 100 hour MA (see post HERE).
Earlier today, the pair fell below its 100 hour moving average, and traded above and below it for most of the European session. However, the last five hours of trading have seen the price first lean against the 100 hour moving average on the topside, and then push lower and away from it.
The move to the downside has now moved to test its 200 hour moving average at 91.908. Support buyers have leaned against the level so far. Hold the level and the buyers and seller battle between the MA levels.
However, on a break, I would expect more corrective probing to the downside with the targets starting at 91.72, then a swing area between 91.29 and 91.40. Below that area, and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the October 6 low comes in at 91.095. That retracement level is the minimum (remember it is only from the October 6 swing low) if the sellers are to take back more control. Absent that, and the sellers are still not holding the strongest hand