EUR/USD falls back under 1.1300 to a low of 1.1281 in trading today
The pair has fallen back under 1.1300 to start European trading, with the dollar keeping firmer amid the softer risk mood in the market today. US futures are down by nearly 1% now and that is weighing on general sentiment as we get things underway.
The topside move in EUR/USD yesterday stalled around the swing region at 1.1340-50 before consolidating just above 1.1300 since. But as the dollar firms over the past few hours, price action is taking a trip south as sellers look to wrestle back more control.
Notably, price is now testing the 50.0 retracement level of the recent swing higher @ 1.1282. But the key line in the sand will be the 100 and 200-hour moving averages @ 1.1264 and 1.1247 respectively.
Keep above that and buyers will still retain near-term control of the pair.
For now, the risk mood is the key driver influencing price action in the pair and it is tilting a little towards favouring sellers; after having favoured buyers yesterday.
But more work needs to be done on either side in general to try and get the pair to really break out more meaningfully since the middle of June.
Buyers are keeping near-term control at the moment but are facing pressure to defend key near-term levels. As for sellers, they have to do much more in order to drive any meaningful downside move back under 1.1200 for any real extended momentum.
Looking ahead, the choppy risk mood to start the week may not be all too helpful for traders in general but be mindful that we are moving closer to EU negotiations on the recovery fund so that will be a key focal point for the euro in the coming week.
