The buyers can't take back control
The EURUSD broke below the 100 day MA at the 1.1175 level after the better US housing data. The lows from last week were briefly taken out, but momentum slowed. The correction higher gave sellers a second shot at selling close to the 100 day MA (see blue horizontal line on the 4-hour chart below). The high reached 1.1166. The 100 day MA is at 1.1175. Sellers remain in control below that key MA level.
The price is back down at the lows. If the momentum can be maintained, a break will look next toward the 1.11046 which is the 38.2% of the move up from April low. Below that, the 1.1065 and the swing highs from March and April at 1.1051 and 1.1035 become the focus. The 50% of the move higher would bring the pair just below the 1.1000 level at 1.0993 (see chart above).
The move lower has had the impact from favorable fundamentals as well as technical bearishness. A caveat for the bears, is that the pair has already trended over 200 pips lower today which can be worrisome (especially if the market is short), but the pair is keeping the "trend like" characteristics. The last leg down (see 5 minute chart below) has the 38.2%-50% of the retracement at the 1.1155-66. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is currently at 1.1175 as is the 100 day MA. Stay below these levels and the bears remain in control and lower levels can be explored. Move above - especially the 100 day MA - and traders might turn more cautious.
