Rally higher today stalled ahead of key resistance levels.
The EURUSD sellers remain in control. Why? How do I know?
If you read my recent posts on the EURUSD, I am putting lots of faith in the 1.11609-71 area. That area has a lot of swing levels going back to mid-May (see red circles in the chart above). There was a break below on May 30th. That failed. There was a break lower last week (Thursday into Friday). That failed with a higher low compared to May 30.
This week, the price fell back below the area on Monday. On Tuesday the correction stalled in the area (sellers still in control). Today the corrective move higher not only stalled ahead of that area but also stalled ahead of the falling 100 hour MA at 1.11587 currently. Sellers still in control. The high today reached 1.1155. Resistance levels are keeping a lid on the pair. Sellers in control.
Now, the range today is only 28 pips. That ain't great. The current price at 1.1136 is 22 pips from the 100 hour MA and 35 pips from the 1.1171 level (top of the 1.11609-71 area). They are risk levels for shorts right now.
The next target is the low from yesterday at 1.1118 and then 1.1108 (the low from May 30th). They are 17 pips and 27 pips away.
So risk/ reward is about equal.
Are there any other technical clues intraday that might give a closer risk level from action today?
Drilling to the 5 minute chart the 1.1139-41 area could be a ceiling for the pair intraday. The 100 bar MA on the 5- minute is at the 1.1139 level. There are swing levels around the area (see red circles and yellow area on the 5 minute chart above). With a narrow trading range, that area seems to be a ceiling now for traders. Stay below, sellers more in control intraday. Move above and the intraday bias might turn more to the upside again.
Summary: A broader view from the hourly shows sellers in control. However the narrow trading range can turn traders up and down too. The market is not all that excited when in a 28 pip trading range. If you drill down, the 5 minute chart is a touch more bearish below a potential ceiling area. Stay below and the downside can be further explored. Move above and the upside resistance targets should/could be revisited. If you are not sure, step aside and wait for better levels near the upper extremes or play a new break lower.
