Next week will complete the story
Gold this week, started on Monday and Tuesday above the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart below). The high tested the 50% retracement of the move down from the 2015 high to the 2015 low at the 1225.05 level. By Tuesday the price was back below (and closing below) the 100 day MA line (blue line in the chart below).
Today the price of gold rallied only to stall just before the 100 day MA at the 1211.69 level (the high was 1210.60). Bears remain in control.
What is the hourly chart telling us as the week comes to a close?
Looking at that chart, the rally today moved up to the 38.2% first. Corrected toward the 200 hour MA, before surging to and through the 100 hour MA (blue line) and the 50% retracement level at 1208.33. This move should have sent gold higher and it did. However, that momentum could not get the price above the 100 day MA. The price is back below the 100 hour MA. Failed breaks. Bearish below the 100 hour MA. A break of the 200 hour MA below will solidify the bearishness.
Intraday, the 5 minute chart shows the momentum move higher today. Off the hourly chart, we know the first move higher stalled at the 38.2% retracement. The correction lower on the 5 minute chart stalled right on the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below). From that point, the price surged higher but stalled at a parallel topside trend line. That was it (we know on the daily it was approaching the 100 day MA).
The current price has just broken below the 100 bar MA but is above the 50% of the move higher at 1203.04
So where do we stand?
The combination of the charts show that all three are "in play" .
On the daily, the 100 day MA is key.
On the hourly, the 100 hour MA will be eyed.
On the 5 minute chart, there is some work to do below.
Next week we should have a better vision once trading gets going as to which way, the market will move. The good news is the tools are there to provide the risk defining road map.
