Sell the fact selling.
The RBNZ raise rates as expected today. The rate rise move the OCR (official cash rate) to 0.5% from 0.25%.
The price of the NZDUSD spiked higher on the rate hike news, but quickly fell off after testing the resistance target area defined by the 38.2% retracement of the September trading range at 0.69763, and a swing area between that retracement level and 0.69809 (see red numbered circles).
The inability to move above that area turned buyers and the sellers, and the price quickly rotated to the downside "on the fact".
The fall lower cracked below the 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 0.69313), and another swing area just below that at 0.69152 to 0.69204 (see green numbered circles). The low for the day bottom near the low from Friday's trade near 0.6877. That is above the cycle lows near 0.68569.
The subsequent rally seen over the last five or six hours has seen the price move back up to the swing area between 0.69152 and 0.69204. Getting back above that swing area - and then the 100 hour moving average (at 0.69318) - would now be needed if the buyers are to take back some of the control. Getting above the 200 hour moving average at 0.69470 (green line) would be the next subsequent step on a reversal move back to the upside.
Failure to do that, and the price remains in the lower end of the seven day trading range with 0.6877 and 0.6857 as the next downside targets to get to and through.
