UPDATE on Oct 15: The sudden intraday rise of Bitcoin, along with the indices (Nasdaq, etc), on the 13 Oct (which was a very special day of extreme price action; It was the fifth largest intraday reversal from a low in the history of the S&P 500, and it was the fourth largest for the Nasdaq), did not follow through for the bulls on Friday and Saturday.
As the below BTCUSD weekly chart shows, the surge ended at the red line, which is the PoC (point of control) of the volume profile of the recent range. In short, this means that sellers were waiting to sell at the highest local price they believed they would get, more than stronger buyers creating demand that would fuel an additional rally.
As a result, the weekly candle is bearish and the short sellers can rejoin the trade. The very minimum target, even for the conservative players, is the VAL (value area low) as marked by the lower blue line. Once partial profits are taken there, one could ride a part of the budget according to the more aspiring initial trade plan (see below, including the bitcoin technical analysis video).
Former update on 13 Oct: Due to the unusual v shape recovery potential on the 4hr on the indices (Nasdaq, etc, and DOW especially stong), it justifes to react and stop here with a tiny profit from the entry. See comments for updates for this and future posts.
Original bitcoin technical analysis posted: Here is my bitcoin technical analysis and price forecast with a 4-to-1 reward-vs-ratio trade idea. That is quite aspiring so partial profit taking can be executed along the way, at your discretion. The stop loss is at $21575. The take profit target is at $10657.
I hope the crypto gang doesn't kill me for this trade idea. But I gotta call them as I see them, mates. Some HODL 'ers may want to wait with scaling up further buy positions, for possible lower prices for BTC. Others may want to consider hedging their cryptocurrency portfolios. Just an idea. Do your own research and trade bitcoin at your own risk.
As the following BTCUSD weekly price chart shows, bitcoin is continuing to show bearish signs. Marked as '1' below, it has crossed down the bear flag (red channel), and tried to rebound off of the long term green support line, but failed again. That was a good place for a rebound should one would be in place. It is now also below the important $20k round number, below the December 2017 high, and very close to this year's low, thus increasing the chance of retesting that low, in the near future.
To complement the bitcoin analysis, please view the detailed video below that also includes the trade idea.
Please do your own research and feel free to see a variety of other opinions within the ForexLive technical analysis section.
