The price of WTI crude is running to the downside as news of an imminent deal with Iran is taking hold (see post here)
The price of crude reached a new high going back to 2008 today at $116.57. The current price is at $108.45. The low just extended to $106.45. That level was just short of the 38.2% of the move up from the last swing low on Feb 25 (starting at $90.05 low). The retracement level comes in at $106.40.
A move below the 38.2% would target a swing low from yesterday at $105.16. Move below that, and the 50% of the same move higher cuts across at 103.28.
SInce the Feb 25 swing low, the price of crude oil has soared 28.3% (from the low to the high today) as Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed the price sharply higher.
The word of a nuclear deal with Iran comes at a good time (I hope it lasts), and would open up some supply that will be lost from Russia as the NATO countries (and beyond) tighten the economic sanctions on Russia - including oil.
A Russian oil producer Surgutneftegaz, found NO buyers for April exports averaging over 200K barrels a day today. With oil comfortably above $100 (and up to $116), that tells a story of the potential economic impact.
US stocks have also seen a boost higher on the news with the futures now implying a higher open:
- Dow is up 214 points. The index rose 596.40 points yesterday
- S&P is up 32 points after rising 80.26 points yesterday
- Nasdaq is up 142 points after rising 219.56 points yesterday