The EURUSD is starting the US session with a move above the 100 hour MA at 1.05281. Recall from yesterday, the price moved to the 100 hour MA and found sellers. The move lower based near 1.0508 and then 1.0490 late in the day.
That lower floor at 1.0490 - which is ahead of the cycle low from last week at 1.04703 - based the pair today and has been a launch for the move back above the 100 hour MA at 1.0528. The break above the 100 hour moving averages the first since April 22.
The break of the 100 hour moving average today is easier because it's lower than it was yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that, etc. . Although it is a easier hurdle, it still is a bullish development.
Having said that, there are number of hurdles ahead that need to be reached - and breached - in order to give the buyers more confidence. What we also do now know from the break of the moving average is that the 100 hour moving average is now a close risk level. Stay above and the "reaching and breaching" has a greater opportunity.
The high from yesterday at 1.05675 and the high from Friday's trade at 1.05922 are the next targets on the topside. Above that and traders will start to look toward the 200 hour moving average near 1.0642. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April 21 high is also in that area at 1.0648.
That succession of targets would really be the minimum if the buyers are to start to take even more control from the sellers. They would represent a normal corrective targets on a recovery highway. Risk - as mentioned - is now the 100 hour MA traders would not want to see a move back below that level.
