Today, the EURUSD continued an upside corrective move higher which was started yesterday, in the Asian/early European session. That modest run to the upside saw the pair move closer to its falling 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). It also saw the pair reenter a swing area going back as far as April 11 between 1.0895 and 1.0908. Recall, in trading last week, the price low stalled on Thursday within that area. On Friday, the pair initially found support in the area, but later broke below and then stayed below, tilting the bias more to the downside.
The inability to move above that swing area today between 1.08955 and 1.09081 today kept the sellers in play and with more control in the short and medium-term technically.
In the US session, the price has moved back below the 38.2% retracement of the range since the March low. That low was the last time the price traded below its 100-day moving average.
On the downside on the hourly chart, the low price from yesterday at 1.08424 is the next target followed by the swing low going back to April 10 at 1.08306. The 100-day moving average is currently at 1.0805 which also happens to be the 50% midpoint of the range since the March 2023 low. The level target level from a technical perspective.
If the sellers can stay below the 38.2% retracement at 1.08735, that would be the best-case scenario for shorts today. A more conservative risk would be the falling 100-hour moving average currently at 1.09045. On a move back above the 100 hour moving average would tilt the bias more in the favor of the buyers in the short term at least.
