The EURUSD moved lower yesterday and in the process retested a swing area going back to 2020 (see post here).
That swing area is above the extremes from that time. However, it is worthy of consideration ahead of the swing low extremes from 2020.Those lows come in at 107.265 (April 24 low) and 106.365 (March 20 low).
The area comes between 1.07642 and 1.0777 (see red numbered circles in the chart above). The low from last week did move briefly below that level, but rebounded back to the upside. Yesterday the price of the EURUSD stalled within the swing area. Today, the swing low for the day dipped below to a intraday low of 1.07605. However, momentum could not reach the low price from last week at 1.07568, and selling dried up. The price has since moved higher.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the dips below the swing area on the daily chart, have clearly been quick with limited momentum. Today's bounce has now seen the price of the EURUSD move back toward the falling 100 hour MA, along with swing highs from Friday and Monday also at the moving average level of 1.08207.
What next ?
Although there is dip buyers near aforementioned support levels in the EURUSD (down to 1.0764), the price rebound still needs to extend above the 1.08207 level to give the buyers more confidence (100 hour moving average and swing highs).
A move above the 100 hour moving average would be Step 1 in a corrective probing move to the upside. Step 2 would be to extend above the falling 200 hour moving average 1.08455 (green line in the chart above).
Ultimately, if the price cannot get above those technical moving average levels, the short term bias might be more positive (above floor area), but the intermediate and long term bias remains in the favor of the sellers.
